TAMPA, FLA — It’s always sunny in Tampa. Spring Training for the Yankees will begin with pitchers and catchers officially reporting to camp on Wednesday. While that is the official report date, most of the team is already in Tampa working out.

Tuesday morning, PECOTA released its first projections for the 2026 season, and they have the Yankees winning the AL East.

The Yankees have run it back this offseason. They have added three external players this offseason — Ryan Weathers, Cade Winquest, and Angel Chivilli. They also have Gerrit Cole coming back off the IL in June from Tommy John Surgery. The Yankees had the best offense in baseball in 2025, and barring a significant injury, there is no reason the Bombers can’t replicate that result.

The bullpen should still be a major concern for the Yankees, especially with their high-end core pitching for various teams in the World Baseball Classic.

Toronto came within inches of winning the World Series. Still, they don’t rank first in PECOTA ratings. They since lost Bo Bichette to free agency and replaced him with Kazuma Okamoto. On the pitching side, they lost Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt, but they added Dylan Cease. Toronto will be good in 2026, but will they be as good as 2025? They had the Baseball Gods on their side for most of last year, so it’s a question if that will continue in 2026.

This part of the projections shocked most, but not me. Baltimore is projected to come in third place, with Boston in fourth.

Baltimore bolstered their offense and bullpen. Their starting rotation, not so much. They were in on Framber Valdez, but could not close the deal. They remain engaged in the starters market, with Bassit, Scherzer, and Zac Gallen, among others, still on the market. Any addition to their rotation will only help their odds.

The Red Sox look different. They lost Alex Bregman to the Chicago Cubs in free agency. They went out and signed Ranger Suarez to make their rotation one of the best in baseball. Their offensive help has been done via trade. They added Wilson Contreras, who is getting older, and Caleb Durbin, who will be a scrappy role player for them. The issue is that Boston is one offensive injury away from not being able to score runs.

The Rays are projected to be in last place. This should not shock anyone. The Rays look to be rebuilding going into 2026, trading away key offensive pieces this offseason. The Rays will have enough to hang around for a bit, but the other teams in the AL East are just too good for the scrappy Rays to ultimately overcome in 2026.

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